By Richard T. Pratt, Helen F. Peters, Richard B. Worley, Stanley Diller, Roland M. Machold, James J. Connolly, William H. Gross, Richard L. Sega; Frank J. Fabozzi, Ray B. Zemon; Suzanne Denbo Jaffe, J. Donald Klink; Paul A. Yates
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Extra info for New Developments in Mortgage-Backed Securities
The Green Book is where the Street sold them, and the 12-year is where they bid them. And it is the same with weighted average maturities. When you get a group of mortgages that all mature on the same month, and you know the weighted average or the average maturity of those mortgages, as time passes you know that that maturity has shrunk. If you get disparate mortgages, however, you do not know which ones are prepaid, so there is some uncertainty as to how much the maturity of a mortgage pool has shrunk.
The reason is that with discounts, whenever you get prepaid, it is to your advantage since you buy the same security at a discount. Consequently, you always want it to happen. But all we heard about was that people were not sure about what the prepayments were going to be, and that they wanted to have some certainty in their models. If you really have a need for certainty and for decimals, avoid investing in the mortgage market because it is not going 28 to be there. All you are going to do is spend your career approximating or trying to limit the amount of uncertainty about what it is you own.
If you cannot forecast interest rate cycles effectively, what sense does it make to forecast prepayment rates? PETERS: The way we operate is that we do not forecast interest rates; we let our clients do that. We do not get paid enough to forecast interest rates. Thus, the models that are available will look at forecasts of prepayment rates over different interest rate scenarios. We let our clients who have to forecast interest rates look at how the portfolio will do. One can also forecast interest rates from the term structure of interest rates and then move from there.
New Developments in Mortgage-Backed Securities by Richard T. Pratt, Helen F. Peters, Richard B. Worley, Stanley Diller, Roland M. Machold, James J. Connolly, William H. Gross, Richard L. Sega; Frank J. Fabozzi, Ray B. Zemon; Suzanne Denbo Jaffe, J. Donald Klink; Paul A. Yates